Abstract:
In the conditions of the development of modern economy, human capital is one of the main factors of economic growth. The formation of human capital begins with the birth of a person and continues throughout life, so the value of human capital is inseparable from its carriers, which in turn makes it difficult to account for this factor. This has led to the fact that currently there are no generally accepted methods of calculating the value of human capital. There are only a few approaches to the measurement of human capital: the cost approach (by income or investment) and the index approach, of which the most well-known approach developed under the auspices of the UN.
This paper presents the assigned task in conjunction with the task of demographic dynamics solved in the time-age plane, which allows to more fully take into account the temporary changes in the demographic structure on the dynamics of human capital.
The task of demographic dynamics is posed within the framework of the Mac-Kendrick–von Foerster model on the basis of the equation of age structure dynamics. The form of distribution functions for births, deaths and migration of the population is determined on the basis of the available statistical information. The numerical solution of the problem is given. The analysis and forecast of demographic indicators are presented. The economic and mathematical model of human capital dynamics is formulated on the basis of the demographic dynamics problem. The problem of modeling the human capital dynamics considers three components of capital: educational, health and cultural (spiritual). Description of the evolution of human capital components uses an equation of the transfer equation type. Investments in human capital components are determined on the basis of budget expenditures and private expenditures, taking into account the characteristic time life cycle of demographic elements. A one-dimensional kinetic equation is used to predict the dynamics of the total human capital. The method of calculating the dynamics of this factor is given as a time function. The calculated data on the human capital dynamics are presented for the Russian Federation. As studies have shown, the value of human capital increased rapidly until 2008, in the future there was a period of stabilization, but after 2014 there is a negative dynamics of this value.
Keywords:
demographic dynamics, human capital dynamics, mathematical modeling, transfer equations, difference scheme, human capital components, investments in human capital.
Citation:
K. V. Ketova, Yu. M. Romanovsky, I. G. Rusyak, “Mathematical modeling of the human capital dynamics”, Computer Research and Modeling, 11:2 (2019), 329–342
\Bibitem{KetRomRus19}
\by K.~V.~Ketova, Yu.~M.~Romanovsky, I.~G.~Rusyak
\paper Mathematical modeling of the human capital dynamics
\jour Computer Research and Modeling
\yr 2019
\vol 11
\issue 2
\pages 329--342
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/crm714}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.20537/2076-7633-2019-11-2-329-342}
Linking options:
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/crm714
https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/crm/v11/i2/p329
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Ekaterina Kasatkina, Daiana Vavilova, 2021 3rd International Conference on Control Systems, Mathematical Modeling, Automation and Energy Efficiency (SUMMA), 2021, 452
Alexandra Voronina, Alexander Kuzminov, Alexander Okhotnikov, Oksana Sorokina, V. Kankhva, “Sustainable development of new technologies for clustering human capital (cenological approach)”, E3S Web Conf., 258 (2021), 07034
Alexander Kuzminov, Alexandra Voronina, Margarita Bezuglova, Tatiana Medvedskaya, V. Kankhva, “The cenological paradigm in the designing of the digital twin of the human capital structure”, E3S Web Conf., 258 (2021), 07035
K V Ketova, E V Kasatkina, D D Vavilova, “Development of an effective adaptive forecasting system based on the combination of neural network and genetic algorithm”, J. Phys.: Conf. Ser., 1889:3 (2021), 032029
K. Ketova, D. D. Vavilova, “Structural and Dynamic Analysis of the Human Capital Health Component of the Socio-Economic System”, Statistika i ekonominka, 18:1 (2021), 54
Nikolai N. MINAEV, Ekaterina A. ZHAROVA, “A research methodology of formation of interregional balance of human capital in the Russian Federation”, RETP, 19:10 (2021), 1956
K. Ketova, I. Rusyak, D. Vavilova, “On the Use of Neural Networks to Solve the Social Clustering Problem”, BSP, 6:8 (2020), 19
K V Ketova, D D Vavilova, “Modelling a human capital of an economic system with neural networks”, J. Phys.: Conf. Ser., 1703:1 (2020), 012035
Karolina V. Ketova, E. A. Saburova, Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 1295, Software Engineering Perspectives in Intelligent Systems, 2020, 385
K V Ketova, I G Rusyak, E A Saburova, D D Vavilova, “Regional socio-economic parameters modeling and system analysis by means of programming and computing suite”, IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng., 862:5 (2020), 052044
Gulnara F. Romashkina, Vladimir A. Davydenko, Elena V. Andrianova, Marina V. Khudyakova, Irina F. Pecherkina, “Human capital study: experience of empirical testing of complex tools”, Siberian Socium, 4:3 (2020), 8
Vladimir A. Davydenko, Elena V. Andrianova, Gulnara F. Romashkina, Roman R. Khuziakhmetov, “Interdisciplinary context of human capital study. Research program”, TSU Herald. Soc Econ Law Res, 5:4 (2019), 30
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