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Computational nanotechnology, 2020, Volume 7, Issue 1, Pages 99–105
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33693/2313-223X-2020-7-1-99-105 (Mi cn293) 		 
This article is cited in 21 scientific papers (total in 21 papers)

05.13.00 INFORMATICS, COMPUTER FACILITIES AND MANAGEMENT
05.13.18 MATHEMATICAL MODELING, NUMERICAL METHODS AND COMPLEX PROGRAMS

Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 in Moscow

È. M. Koltsovaa, E. S. Kurkinaab, A. M. Vasetskya

a Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology of Russia
b Lomonosov Moscow State University
Citations (21)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33693/2313-223X-2020-7-1-99-105
Abstract: To model the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus in Moscow, a discrete logistic equation describing the increase in the number of cases was used. To verify the adequacy of the mathematical model, the simulation results were compared with the spread of coronavirus in China. The parameters of the logistics equation for Moscow on the interval [01.03-08.04] were defined. A comparison of growth rates of the number of infected COVID-19 for a number of European, Asian countries and the USA is given. Four scenarios of the spread of COVID-19 in Moscow were considered. For each scenario, curves of the increase in the number of infected people and graphs of the increase in the total number of cases were obtained, and the dynamics of infection spread by day was studied. Peak times, epidemic periods, the number of infected people at the peak and their growth were determined.
Keywords: coronavirus COVID-19, mathematical modeling, logistic equation, epidemic development scenarios.
Bibliographic databases:
Document Type: Article
Language: Russian
Citation: È. M. Koltsova, E. S. Kurkina, A. M. Vasetsky, “Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 in Moscow”, Comp. nanotechnol., 7:1 (2020), 99–105
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{KolKurVas20}
\by \`E.~M.~Koltsova, E.~S.~Kurkina, A.~M.~Vasetsky
\paper Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 in Moscow
\jour Comp. nanotechnol.
\yr 2020
\vol 7
\issue 1
\pages 99--105
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/cn293}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.33693/2313-223X-2020-7-1-99-105}
\elib{https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=42704682}
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    • This publication is cited in the following 21 articles:
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