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Chebyshevskii Sbornik, 2018, Volume 19, Issue 4, Pages 227–242
DOI: https://doi.org/10.22405/2226-8383-2018-19-4-227-242
(Mi cheb712)
 

This article is cited in 4 scientific papers (total in 4 papers)

Mathematical methods of analysis and forecast of earthquake aftershocks: the need to change the paradigm

P. N. Shebalin

Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics RAS
Full-text PDF (538 kB) Citations (4)
References:
Abstract: Analysis and forecast of aftershocks of large earthquakes in the world practice is currently based exclusively on stochastic models of aftershock process. This makes it possible to use statistical methods of analysis, and also to apply the "scenario" approach in forecasts by repeatedly generating random sequences of aftershocks and counting the frequency of repetition of the events of interest. Studies on the Russian Science Foundation project "Development of information system for automatic seismic hazard assessment after large earthquakes based on geophysical monitoring" in 2016-2018 showed however that the effectiveness of such approaches has significant limitations. In this paper I give a critical review of statistical methods for the analysis and forecast of aftershocks, an interpretation of the effectiveness limits of forecasts using standard approaches, provide the rationale for the need to change the paradigm. As one of the search directions, the application of Discrete Mathematical Analysis (DMA) methods developed by Academician A.D. Gvishiani and his scientific school. An obvious advantage of this approach is demonstrated by the example of a simple algorithm for identification of aftershocks using fuzzy comparisons.
Keywords: aftershocks of earthquakes, Omori law, Gutenberg–Richter law, law of repeatability of the number of aftershocks, cluster, Discrete Mathematical Analysis, fuzzy sets, fuzzy comparisons.
Funding agency Grant number
Russian Science Foundation 16-17-00093
Received: 27.07.2018
Accepted: 22.10.2018
Bibliographic databases:
Document Type: Article
UDC: 517
Language: Russian
Citation: P. N. Shebalin, “Mathematical methods of analysis and forecast of earthquake aftershocks: the need to change the paradigm”, Chebyshevskii Sb., 19:4 (2018), 227–242
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{She18}
\by P.~N.~Shebalin
\paper Mathematical methods of analysis and forecast of earthquake aftershocks: the need to change the paradigm
\jour Chebyshevskii Sb.
\yr 2018
\vol 19
\issue 4
\pages 227--242
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/cheb712}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.22405/2226-8383-2018-19-4-227-242}
\elib{https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=36921203}
Linking options:
  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/cheb712
  • https://www.mathnet.ru/eng/cheb/v19/i4/p227
  • This publication is cited in the following 4 articles:
    1. S. V. Baranov, P. N. Shebalin, I. A. Vorobieva, O. V. Selyutskaya, “Automated Assessment of Hazards of Aftershocks of the M<sub>W</sub> 7.8 Earthquake in Turkey of February 6, 2023”, Fizika zemli, 2023:6 (2023), 133  crossref
    2. S. V. Baranov, P. N. Shebalin, I. A. Vorobieva, O. V. Selyutskaya, “Automated Assessment of Hazards of Aftershocks of the Mw 7.8 Earthquake in Turkey of February 6, 2023*”, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 59:6 (2023), 939  crossref
    3. I. O. Kitov, I. A. Sanina, “Analysis of Sequences of Aftershocks Initiated by Underground Nuclear Tests Conducted in North Korea on September 9, 2016 and September 3, 2017”, Seism. Instr., 58:5 (2022), 567  crossref
    4. P. N. Shebalin, S. V. Baranov, “Forecasting Aftershock Activity: 5. Estimating the Duration of a Hazardous Period”, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 55:5 (2019), 719  crossref
    Citing articles in Google Scholar: Russian citations, English citations
    Related articles in Google Scholar: Russian articles, English articles
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    Abstract page:239
    Full-text PDF :333
    References:40
     
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