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Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics, 2020, Volume 3, Pages 36–50
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33581/2520-6508-2020-3-36-50 (Mi bgumi76) 		 
This article is cited in 6 scientific papers (total in 6 papers)

Theory of probability and Mathematical statistics

Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the republic of belarus

Yu. S. Kharinab, V. A. Valoshkaba, O. V. Dernakovaa, V. I. Maluginb, A. J. Kharinab

a Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
b Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33581/2520-6508-2020-3-36-50
Abstract: The paper is devoted to the urgent problem of statistical forecasting for the dynamics of the main epidemiological indicators for the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Belarus based on the observed time series. To solve this problem, five methods are proposed: forecasting method based on «moving trends»; local-median forecasting method; forecasting method based on discrete time series; forecasting method based on the vector econometric error correction model; method of sequential statistical analysis. Algorithms for computation of point and interval forecasts for the main epidemiological indicators have been developed. The numerical results of computer forecasting are presented on the example of the Republic of Belarus.
Keywords: forecasting; probability model; time series; point forecast; interval forecast; COVID-19.
Funding agency Grant number
Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus
This research is supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus.
Document Type: Article
UDC: 519.2
Language: Russian
Citation: Yu. S. Kharin, V. A. Valoshka, O. V. Dernakova, V. I. Malugin, A. J. Kharin, “Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the republic of belarus”, Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics, 3 (2020), 36–50
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{KhaValDer20}
\by Yu.~S.~Kharin, V.~A.~Valoshka, O.~V.~Dernakova, V.~I.~Malugin, A.~J.~Kharin
\paper Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the republic of belarus
\jour Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics
\yr 2020
\vol 3
\pages 36--50
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/bgumi76}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.33581/2520-6508-2020-3-36-50}
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    • This publication is cited in the following 6 articles:
    Citing articles in Google Scholar: Russian citations, English citations
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    		Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics
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