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Vestnik Yuzhno-Ural'skogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Seriya "Matematika. Mekhanika. Fizika", 2021, Volume 13, Issue 4, Pages 24–28
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14529/mmph210403
(Mi vyurm497)
 

Mathematics

Making investment decisions in an industrial enterprise under uncertainty

V. G. Mokhova, G. S. Chebotarevab

a South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation
b Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation
References:
Abstract: The article is devoted to the issue of selecting investment projects for the modernization of an industrial enterprise in the conditions of uncertainty. Uncertainty in this work is understood as the lack of data on the likelihood of the implementation of scenarios of alternative investment projects. As a methodological base, a set of generally accepted quantitative criteria for reducing uncertainty is proposed, which is characterized by different attitudes towards the probability of future events (pessimistic, optimistic, neutral, etc.). Additionally, a criterion is selected that combines expert and quantitative assessment of uncertainty. Practical calculations are made according to five criteria for three scenarios of five investment projects of an industrial enterprise. The aim of this work is to assess the difficulty of making unambiguous investment decisions under conditions of uncertainty. As a result, each of the four quantitative criteria has pointed to a different project. The fifth criterion has made it possible to limit the range of choice to two projects. This has confirmed the conclusions that making investment decisions requires the responsible person to use not only quantitative indicators, but also existing experience and intuition. The reliability of the findings has been confirmed by the use of generally accepted models and methods, as well as the practical implementation of the results. It is recommended to use these results in the scientific community when conducting subsequent methodological studies aimed at reducing uncertainty, as well as to business owners and investors when making strategic decisions.
Keywords: alternative, investment decision, investment project, criterion, uncertainty, industrial enterprise, scenario.
Funding agency Grant number
Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation МК-4549.2021.2
The work was supported by grant of the President of the Russian Federation (МК-4549.2021.2).
Received: 24.10.2021
Document Type: Article
UDC: 330.322.013 + 658.152.12
MSC: 97M40
Language: English
Citation: V. G. Mokhov, G. S. Chebotareva, “Making investment decisions in an industrial enterprise under uncertainty”, Vestn. Yuzhno-Ural. Gos. Un-ta. Ser. Matem. Mekh. Fiz., 13:4 (2021), 24–28
Citation in format AMSBIB
\Bibitem{MokChe21}
\by V.~G.~Mokhov, G.~S.~Chebotareva
\paper Making investment decisions in an industrial enterprise under uncertainty
\jour Vestn. Yuzhno-Ural. Gos. Un-ta. Ser. Matem. Mekh. Fiz.
\yr 2021
\vol 13
\issue 4
\pages 24--28
\mathnet{http://mi.mathnet.ru/vyurm497}
\crossref{https://doi.org/10.14529/mmph210403}
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    References:24
     
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